Investing In the Long Run: Standard

[Xaol]

Hey everyone! I thought I would write a nice article for you guys. I'd like to discuss a pretty interesting topic that can hopefully help you guys make a bit of value on your cards in the long run. Some of what I'll write might seem obvious to you, some hopefully will not. This information is purely speculation, however. Bear in mind this is my first article, give me feedback!

Without further ado, I give you:

Investing In the Long Run: Standard

There are a plethora of good cards that I think will increase given time. Cards we have access to in standard. Cards we can easily open in boosters at affordable prices. The following are cards I think will increase after they rotate out of Standard and become solely useful in the Eternal formats.

First up. {Deathrite Shaman}.
This card is probably one of the most versatile one drops ever printed. He fixes mana, puts the game on a clock, and pulls your life total far ahead. Currently, he is a strong contender in Modern, a format oppressively ruled over by Jund, where the Shaman rests comfortably as a four of in almost every Jund deck out there. I think {Rest in Peace} was printed to limit the {Deathrite Shaman}'s graveyard shenanigans, but it simply isn't working.
While it will be a while before he rotates out, as long as Jund is strong in Modern, there will be a high demand for the creepy little wizard.

Next up: {Snapcaster Mage}

What doesn't this guy do? Flashy chump blocker, at the least. His ability of granting flashback means blue mages get real bang for their buck. He's played in both Legacy and Modern. Why is he so good? He simply gives you so many answers to whatever your opponent plays. Did they just play a {Dark Confidant}? You can cast {Snapcaster Mage} into a timely {Counterspell}. Crisis averted. Blue is a strong color in Legacy, and while not every blue Mage uses good old Tiago, he is in tons of blue decks and will continue to be blue's favorite creature. Expect him to drop slightly when he rotates out, when standard players try to get rid of their playsets. Buy them up at that point, because they will go up a few months after.

Next: {Abrupt Decay}
A 2 drop which gets rid of {Tarmogoyf}, {Dark Confidant}, and {Goblin Piledriver}? Count me in!
I think the reason this card went down after release is that it just isn't relevant in standard right now. I think if decks using {Delver of Secrets} were still prevalent then {Abrupt Decay} could see some use. It's much more relevant in Modern in Legacy, as it gets rid of so many cards. It's another strong removal tool for Jund decks. Its price should go up a few dollars, but not as much as the previously mentioned cards. The uncounterable aspect of it is very useful in Legacy with the prevalence of blue based decks.

Finally:
Shocklands!
All of them. They will go up. While they may be a reprint, the fact of the matter is that your mana base really makes or breaks your deck. Modern, unlike legacy, doesn't have access to dual lands of the power level of {Volcanic Island} or {Taiga}, and with a few exceptions, the Ravnica shocklands are the best Modern has. Easily fetched with fetchlands like {Arid Mesa}, the reprint of shocklands leaves us lucky players with a golden investment opportunity. Expect these cards to always stay below their older counterparts, but they will increase in time as their predecessors have.

One more addiction:
{Delver of Secrets}
What a broken card! He is played in legacy in the form of RUG Delved and U/R Delver decks. The amount of cards available that can flip him in Legacy is absurd. He may be a common, but I guarantee he will increase. Get foils, if you can!

Notable cards which I don't think will go up:
{Thragtusk}- he's only worth so much ecayae of how well positioned he is in the current meta.
{Lingering Souls} B/W just isn't that strong outside of standard, and the spirits aren't relevant considering the amount of removal we have access to in eternal formats.
{Bonfire of the Damned}- a nice card in standard, but the fact of the matter is that tapping out for this in Legacy or Modern, with the truly absurd amounts of counterspells, just hurts. Really bad. There are better and more efficient burn cards, and the only reason this card holds value in standard is the lack of counterspells and the power of the miracle mechanic.
{Geralf's Messenger}- zombies is not a strong archetype out of Standard, and his abilities are nicely counteracted by a timely {Kitchen Finks}. Ouch!

Thanks for reading everyone, and happy holidays!

[ZeroNero]

Nice article. And it has given me some nice insight for the future. Thank you.

[MisterJH]

Im curious as to how much shocklands will rise and how soon. I have some now, and im itching to trade them in for something i need.

[Xaol]

Im curious as to how much shocklands will rise and how soon. I have some now, and im itching to trade them in for something i need.

From their prices now, they will fluctuate a bit based on what's prevalent in the standard meta game. However, when they rotate out they will first drop a couple of dollars, then slowly (we're talking months/years) go up. I think the original shocklands have increased an average of a dollar and a half a year since rotating out originally, which doesn't seem like much but is consistent.

[Xaol]

Nice article. And it has given me some nice insight for the future. Thank you.

Thanks for the compliments!

[Dudecore]

Nice stuff. I would like to see more of this. I have 2 brief qualms.

1) Shocklands from Gatecrash will likely be worth more, because it they aren't going to print as much as they did Return to Ravnica. RtR is probably the highest selling product in Magic's history.

2) {Lingering Souls} is a Modern staple. Mostly everyone uses it to stop those Affinity decks. It is uncommon, so it won't see a huge increase, but could be more then a $2 uncommon.

[Xaol]

Nice stuff. I would like to see more of this. I have 2 brief qualms.

1) Shocklands from Gatecrash will likely be worth more, because it they aren't going to print as much as they did Return to Ravnica. RtR is probably the highest selling product in Magic's history.

2) {Lingering Souls} is a Modern staple. Mostly everyone uses it to stop those Affinity decks. It is uncommon, so it won't see a huge increase, but could be more then a $2 uncommon.

About the Gatecrash shocklands- you're entirely correct, with the smaller print run they will be worth a bit more. I would have mentioned that except that I wanted to wait a bit closer to the Gatecrash release.
In regards to {Lingering Souls}- I agree with you here- this card is a Modern staple right now. However, I think the fact that it is uncommon and still widely available makes any future price increase pretty small and inconsequential, while it will still increase. Thanks!

[Dudecore]

{Lingering Souls} is most likely to be printed again in some other form. A card that makes 2 tokens is space they'll use again. For right now it's even in legacy for the same reasons.

[Silent1236]

I really liked this article!

[Coffee Vampire]

Cool article I am going to get a playset of each shock before rotation!

[Xaol]

Cool article I am going to get a playset of each shock before rotation!

Thanks! Yes, I'm working towards full playsets myself too.

[Mintkid219]

Cool article would love to read more.

[izik99]

Since all the shock lands are going to be printed even more in Dragon's Maze, will they go down a lot before they go up?

[Wally]

I would suspect not.
From what I understand, the dragons maze set will be a smaller print of cards but the rares will still be just as rare. If you open a lot of boosters your chance on getting a shock land may increase slightly, but getting the one you want will drop because there will be ones from both sets but equally as few overall.
I hope that makes sense.

[izik99]

Yes, it makes sense. I was hoping I could buy them cheap once it came out, but I guess not. I like EDH better than Standard now, anyway